CUP YTD
23-17 +03.04 units (Match-Ups)
13-06 +13.80 units (Props)
05-19 +09.44 units (Outrights)
Total: +26.28 units
Got a pretty big card for tonight, alot out there that I like. Trying to be cautious though because thats when I usually lose my ass.
Match-Ups
2.00 units Jeff Burton (-130) over Kasey Kahne (@thegreek)
Really like Burton tonight. He's having a solid year so far (9.8 avg. finish over the last 5 races), and this is his best track statistically (8.0 avg. in 16 races never placing outside the Top 15, also has 2 wins here).
Kahne hasn't exactly been stellar here of late. Did finish 13th last time out but the 3 races before that were 36th, 40th and 31st.
1.50 units Bobby Labonte(-105) over Elliott Sadler (@thegreek)
Two struggling teams matched up but Labonte's past history here is a huge advantage when compared to Sadler's.
This is actually Sadler's 3rd worst track statiscally over his entire career (26.1 avg. in 14 starts, that figure has actually gotten worse over the last 6 races at Phoenix with an avg. of 31.0). Labonte has averaged a Top 15 finish over the past 6 races albeit driving for Petty Enterprises, but looking back Tony Raines had decent numbers here driving for Hall of Fame Racing which Labonte drives for now.
1.50 unit Jimmie Johnson (-125) over Jeff Gordon (@thegreek)
Can't overlook the numbers and success JJ has had here. Once again if you look at career stats alone this is his best track(5.5 avg. in 11 starts) plus 3 straight wins is convincing enough.
1.00 unit Paul Menard (+110) over Regan Smith (@5dimes)
Kind of scary putting money on Menard but this team has a little momentum coming off their best finish of the year(13th at Texas) and I like the fact I have a decent (and decently funded) full-time team in an underdog role vs. a lower budgeted part-time team, even though I admit has had some ok runs in the few races they've entered. Still like my chances here with Menard on one of his better tracks.
1.00 unit Tony Stewart(+100) over Carl Edwards(@thegreek)
Got a feeling about Smoke tonight, darkhorse contender for the win IMO. These guys seem to be getting it together(3rd and 4th last 2 races) and this is a good track for Stewart. Surprisingly Edwards and the 99 team have been going in the opposite direction although I don't expect that to last too long.
1.00 unit Denny Hamlin(+110) over Kyle Busch (@5dimes)
Love Hamlin on flat tracks always seems to be around the Top 3 and challenging for the win. On the other hand, this has been a good track for Busch but not great(8th. 10th, 8th and 7th last 4 here). Hamlin is 5-1 head to head against Busch at Phoenix.
1.00 unit AJ Allmendinger (+125) over Martin Truex (@5dimes)
Just like what Allmendinger is doing with this team and the improvement he continues to show from week to week.
1.00 unit Jeff Burton (+120) over Dale Jr. (@5dimes)
Really like the value here
Props
2.00 units Jeff Burton (-115) 11.5 (@5dimes)
Has covered this number 12 out of 15 races at Phoenix, including 5 of the last 6
2.00 units Denny Hamlin (-130) under 6.5 (@5dimes)
Killing me with this line but Denny has finished Top 5 at Phoenix in 4 of the last 5
1.00 unit Jeff Burton (+305) to win group (@thegreek)
over Kahne/Ragan/Bowyer/Harvick
Outrights
1.00 unit Jimmie Johnson (+445) @5dimes
Can't argue with 3 wins in a row
0.50 unit Denny Hamlin (+825) @5imes
Really good on the flats
0.50 unit Kurt Busch (+1000) @thegreek
Finished 2nd here last time out and starts 3rd tonight
0.50 unit Tony Stewart (+1000) @thegreek
Looks like its coming together for these guys
Good luck to everyone!
23-17 +03.04 units (Match-Ups)
13-06 +13.80 units (Props)
05-19 +09.44 units (Outrights)
Total: +26.28 units
Got a pretty big card for tonight, alot out there that I like. Trying to be cautious though because thats when I usually lose my ass.
Match-Ups
2.00 units Jeff Burton (-130) over Kasey Kahne (@thegreek)
Really like Burton tonight. He's having a solid year so far (9.8 avg. finish over the last 5 races), and this is his best track statistically (8.0 avg. in 16 races never placing outside the Top 15, also has 2 wins here).
Kahne hasn't exactly been stellar here of late. Did finish 13th last time out but the 3 races before that were 36th, 40th and 31st.
1.50 units Bobby Labonte(-105) over Elliott Sadler (@thegreek)
Two struggling teams matched up but Labonte's past history here is a huge advantage when compared to Sadler's.
This is actually Sadler's 3rd worst track statiscally over his entire career (26.1 avg. in 14 starts, that figure has actually gotten worse over the last 6 races at Phoenix with an avg. of 31.0). Labonte has averaged a Top 15 finish over the past 6 races albeit driving for Petty Enterprises, but looking back Tony Raines had decent numbers here driving for Hall of Fame Racing which Labonte drives for now.
1.50 unit Jimmie Johnson (-125) over Jeff Gordon (@thegreek)
Can't overlook the numbers and success JJ has had here. Once again if you look at career stats alone this is his best track(5.5 avg. in 11 starts) plus 3 straight wins is convincing enough.
1.00 unit Paul Menard (+110) over Regan Smith (@5dimes)
Kind of scary putting money on Menard but this team has a little momentum coming off their best finish of the year(13th at Texas) and I like the fact I have a decent (and decently funded) full-time team in an underdog role vs. a lower budgeted part-time team, even though I admit has had some ok runs in the few races they've entered. Still like my chances here with Menard on one of his better tracks.
1.00 unit Tony Stewart(+100) over Carl Edwards(@thegreek)
Got a feeling about Smoke tonight, darkhorse contender for the win IMO. These guys seem to be getting it together(3rd and 4th last 2 races) and this is a good track for Stewart. Surprisingly Edwards and the 99 team have been going in the opposite direction although I don't expect that to last too long.
1.00 unit Denny Hamlin(+110) over Kyle Busch (@5dimes)
Love Hamlin on flat tracks always seems to be around the Top 3 and challenging for the win. On the other hand, this has been a good track for Busch but not great(8th. 10th, 8th and 7th last 4 here). Hamlin is 5-1 head to head against Busch at Phoenix.
1.00 unit AJ Allmendinger (+125) over Martin Truex (@5dimes)
Just like what Allmendinger is doing with this team and the improvement he continues to show from week to week.
1.00 unit Jeff Burton (+120) over Dale Jr. (@5dimes)
Really like the value here
Props
2.00 units Jeff Burton (-115) 11.5 (@5dimes)
Has covered this number 12 out of 15 races at Phoenix, including 5 of the last 6
2.00 units Denny Hamlin (-130) under 6.5 (@5dimes)
Killing me with this line but Denny has finished Top 5 at Phoenix in 4 of the last 5
1.00 unit Jeff Burton (+305) to win group (@thegreek)
over Kahne/Ragan/Bowyer/Harvick
Outrights
1.00 unit Jimmie Johnson (+445) @5dimes
Can't argue with 3 wins in a row
0.50 unit Denny Hamlin (+825) @5imes
Really good on the flats
0.50 unit Kurt Busch (+1000) @thegreek
Finished 2nd here last time out and starts 3rd tonight
0.50 unit Tony Stewart (+1000) @thegreek
Looks like its coming together for these guys
Good luck to everyone!
